The political landscape in Australia is on the brink of a major upheaval, and the future of the Coalition hangs in the balance. Sussan Ley's ambitious attempt to unite the Liberal-National Coalition on net zero emissions could backfire spectacularly, potentially tearing the party apart and alienating voters across the spectrum.
Climate and energy policies have long been a battleground within the Coalition, with compromises often leaving climate-conscious MPs disappointed. Scott Morrison's commitment to net zero by 2050 was little more than a slogan, while Peter Dutton's offer of nuclear power as a solution satisfied few. Now, Ley faces an even greater challenge as she tries to find common ground ahead of the 2028 election.
But here's where it gets controversial... Ley's proposed compromise risks not only alienating voters but also fracturing the very foundation of the Coalition. With the threat of more defections like Barnaby Joyce's looming, the right wing of Australian politics could be on the verge of a major split.
In an attempt to unite the disparate factions, Ley is navigating a delicate path. The question is, can she find a solution that satisfies both the sceptics and the progressives without sacrificing credibility?
Amidst this turmoil, the Coalition is reviewing its commitment to net zero, and Liberals are considering potential compromises. These include repealing Labor's net zero legislation, removing timelines for decarbonisation, and offering exemptions to certain sectors. Essentially, it's net zero with an asterisk, or as one Liberal put it, "net zero with caveats."
And this is the part most people miss... The Nationals, led by Matt Canavan, are also reviewing their stance on net zero, and their decision could be a game-changer. If they abandon their commitment to the target, as expected, it may become impossible for the Coalition to maintain net zero, even if the Liberals desire it.
Ley's desire to reunite the parties after their brief post-election split is understandable, but her efforts to appease the Nationals and right-wing Liberals could lead to an outcome that lacks both policy credibility and political popularity.
Let's delve into the credibility issue. The Coalition has already opposed Labor's 2035 target of cutting emissions by 62-70%, and officially scrapping this target would breach the Paris Agreement. Similarly, rescinding Australia's commitment to net zero by 2050 would be a clear violation of international agreements.
Coalition sources argue that these compromises allow city-based Liberals to claim they're committed to emissions reduction while regional MPs can assure their constituents that no real action is required. However, this strategy assumes a level of political savvy that may not exist in today's politically savvy electorate.
So, what's the likely outcome? Voters in teal-held Wentworth, Kooyong, and Curtin, who rejected Morrison and Dutton's climate policies, are unlikely to welcome net zero by 2060. And those who want net zero dumped entirely won't be satisfied with a vague commitment.
Pauline Hanson's One Nation, which is gaining support from disenchanted Coalition voters, stands ready to capitalize on these discontents. Barnaby Joyce, who is considering a switch to One Nation, has made it clear that he and his allies want a complete abolition of net zero, not a watered-down version.
The bottom line is this: Ley has no choice but to compromise, but the extent of that compromise could define the future of the Coalition and Australian politics. Will she find a middle ground that satisfies all, or will the Coalition's net zero position become a casualty of internal politics?
