Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (2022)

The 2021 Oscar nominations are upon us, even if the Oscars themselves are still a couple of months away. It is, in fact, the weirdest Oscars in my ten years of covering them professionally, and it’s a bit ironic that during a year in which almost all the presumed Best Picture nominees are streaming, it feels like interest from the general public is the lowest it’s been in decades. That’s not a reflectionof the quality of the films – there are some genuinely fantastic movies, performances, and crafts up for the Oscars this year – but maybe more a reflection of how, without a big splashy theatrical release, it’s much harder for a film to tap into the zeitgeist.

That also seriously handicaps Oscar prognosticating this year, as nothing was normal. There was no big festival season in which a frontrunner emerged. There was no box office bump for a populist film. There was no late-coming surprise. We’re flying blind here, so to that end I have done my best with the following Oscar nominations predictions, but I would not be surprised to see some, well, surprises.

To that end I say bring ‘em on. If this is gonna be a weird Oscar year, make it really weird. For now, though, here’s how I see the major Oscar nominees shaping up when they’re announced on Monday morning, with each player ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated.

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Best Picture

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (1)

Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Minari

Mank

Promising Young Woman

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

One Night in Miami…

Sound of Metal

Judas and the Black Messiah

Major Threats:Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World

The bulk of the Best Picture lineup has been fairly set for the last couple of months now. There are five mainstays who feel like a lock to land nominations at this point: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Mank, and Promising Young Woman. All earned PGA nominations, which is a frequent bellwether for Best Picture nominees, and all have fared incredibly well with critics groups and precursor awards alike. So count on those appearing, barring any major shockers.

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Outside that lineup, Netflix’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom feels pretty safe to get in – especially after earning a PGA nomination – and ditto to Amazon’s One Night in Miami… and Sound of Metal, as well as Warner Bros.’ Judas and the Black Messiah. The latter is the latest entry in the Oscar race and if anything misses the cut I think it’s this Fred Hampton film, which earned positive yet slightly mixed reviews. On the outside looking in, there’s a chance Borat Subsequent Moviefilm earns a nod as it got a PGA nomination, and in terms of longer shots non-PGA-nominated The Father, Da 5 Bloods, and News of the World are possibilities. But if you ask me, the lineup above is pretty set.

(Video) Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021 [February Picks] | Who Will Get a Nomination? | All 23 Categories

Best Director

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (2)

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

David Fincher – Mank

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Major Threats: Regina King (One Night in Miami…), Paul Greengrass (News of the World), George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

This year’s Best Director lineup is almost certain to make history, it’s merely a question of by how wide a margin. Never before have two women been nominated for the Best Director Oscar, but that feels almost guaranteed to happen this year. Chloe Zhao is a lock for a nomination for her Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland, while Emerald Fennell and Regina King have been picking up recognition left and right for Promising Young Woman and One Night in Miami… respectively. PYW is the “showier” of the two directing-wise, but King is a beloved figure in the industry and her restrained approach to One Night in Miami...is equally brilliant. If all three get in, then it feels likely that Aaron Sorkin or David Fincher gets knocked out, although somewhat surprisingly Sorkinfeels like the safer bet to stay in here.

The DGA nominees were Zhao, Fennell, Sorkin, Fincher, and Minari’s Lee Isaac Chung. I’m going with that exact lineup for Oscars, but I feel like any of the men could be swapped out for King, or potentially Fennell although PYW has been performing really strongly. Again, history is likely to be made either way, so this is an exciting category.

Best Actress

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (3)

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

(Video) Very Early Oscar Predictions 2023

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday

Major Threats: Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Yeri Han (Minari)

This year’s Best Actress race has been pretty set for some time now, and the extremely safe bets are Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan, and Viola Davis. McDormand and Davis are Oscar winners already, but Mulligan has pulled ahead in terms of who’s likeliest to take this thing home right now (although there’s still a ways to go). But Vanessa Kirby’s rave reviews should also vault her into position for Netflix’s Pieces of a Woman, while Andra Day – who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress – is likely to score her first nod for The United States vs. Billie Holliday. I can’t really foresee any major shakeups here, although it would be nice to see Yeri Han get recognized.

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Best Actor

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (4)

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Steven Yeun – Minari

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Gary Oldman – Mank

Major Threats: Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Boy what a stacked category. Chadwick Boseman is far and away the favorite to win this year, so the rest are playing for a consolation prize. Anthony Hopkins, Steven Yeun, and Riz Ahmed are pretty safe, but I honestly would not be shocked if Gary Oldman was left out of the race here. Mank was largely ignored by the Screen Actors Guild save for Oldman, and it feels like a movie that will perform better with branches outside the Actors one. Still, I’m counting on Oldman getting in, but if he doesn’t there’s a prime opportunity for a surprise from The Mauritanian’s Tahar Rahim or Delroy Lindo, a critics favorite who seems to have fallen just outside the likeliest nominations circle as awards groups have cooled on Da 5 Bloods as a whole.

Best Supporting Actress

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (5)
(Video) Awards Season 2022 Popcast!!! - Oscar Nomination Predictions - October 2021 (10-25-21)

Olivia Colman – The Father

Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah

Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian

Major Threats: Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Helena Zengel (News of the World)

This category could be wild. Anything could happen all the way up through Oscar night. Olivia Colman, Yuh-Jung Youn, and Maria Bakalova feel pretty safe to me, but I’m predicting Amanda Seyfried to fall just outside (despite an excellent performance) in favor of the currently more buzzworthy Dominique Fishback and Jodie Foster. But who knows, maybe Glenn Close will score a nomination after all? Maybe the young Helena Zengel breaks into the pack?

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Best Supporting Actor

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (6)

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami…

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Major Threats: Jared Leto (The Little Things), Alan Kim (Minari), Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

There are two scenarios for this category: one in which Jared Leto gets nominated for a kind-of-bad performance in Warner Bros.’ The Little Things, and one in which he does not. I’m predicting the latter, but understand it could very well be the former. At any rate, Daniel Kauuya feels the safest here for his excellent turn as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah, while Sacha Baron Cohen is also a pretty easy bet for playing Abbie Hoffman in Chicago 7. Then there’s the very deserving Paul Raci from Sound of Metal, who I think gets in, as well as Leslie Odom Jr. who feels like the best bet for an acting nom for One Night in Miami… — although it’s possible Aldis Hodge gets nominated here instead. The big question mark is whether the Academy will bestow Boseman with two nominations or one, and his Da 5 Bloods nom is far from assured. The young Alan Kim is a possibility for Minari, and yes, so is Leto. As with Supporting Actress, this category is pretty unpredictable this year.

(Video) 2023 Oscar Predictions | September 2022

Best Original Screenplay

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (7)

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

Minari

Sound of Metal

Major Threats:Palm Springs, Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah

The frontrunners here appear to be Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman, but Jack Fincher’s script for Mank has also been a bit of a mainstay in this category, Minari is well-loved (and deserving), and Sound of Metal picked up a WGA nomination so that’s what’s guiding my thinking right now. Pixar in the past has broken into this category, but the controversy surrounding Soul appears to have drowned out the enthusiasm for that film to score a nomination in the major categories. Judas and the Black Messiah and Palm Springs picked up WGA noms so they could sneak in, and I would be especially delighted to see the latter earn a nomination. If there’s a surprise here, I think Palm Springs is it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021: What Will This Year's Race Look Like? (8)

Nomadland

One Night in Miami…

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

The Father

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

(Video) 2021 OSCAR Nomination Predictions

Major Threats: News of the World, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian

As the Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland is the favorite here, and the rest of the category seems to be filling out rather expectedly. Remember the first Borat earned a Best Original Screenplay nomination, so a nod for the sequel is actually fairly expected – although I could see WGA nominee The White Tiger surprising with a nod here instead of The Father.

KEEP READING: Every BestActor Winner of the 21st Century Ranked From Worst to Best

FAQs

What are the Oscar predictions for 2022? ›

Oscars 2022 predictions – who will win and who should win?
  • Will win: The Power of the Dog. ...
  • Will win: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. ...
  • Will win: Will Smith for King Richard. ...
  • Will win: Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. ...
  • Will win: Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog.
27 Mar 2022

Will Encanto win an Oscar? ›

Disney's 'Encanto' wins best animated feature at 2022 Oscars; Lin-Manuel Miranda misses out on EGOT.

Who is up for Best Picture 2022? ›

The nominees for Best Picture were: BELFAST, CODA, DON'T LOOK UP, DRIVE MY CAR, DUNE, KING RICHARD, LICORICE PIZZA, NIGHTMARE ALLEY, THE POWER OF THE DOG and WEST SIDE STORY.

Who will win Best Costume Design 2022? ›

CRUELLA is the Oscars 2022 Costume Design!

What is Mirabel's gift? ›

Therefore, the theory that she is supposed to take Abuela's place does hold some weight. So while there's evidence that Mirabel's gift was secretly the front door, the film also shows that Mirabel wasn't truly gifted anything. Instead, she earns the front door to the house in Encanto.

Did Encanto beat frozen? ›

Encanto's "We Don't Talk About Bruno" has hit No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, surpassing Frozen's "Let It Go" and becoming the first Disney song to top the charts in 29 years.

Which movie won the most Oscars in history? ›

Ben-Hur won with: Best Picture; Best Director; Best Actor; Best Supporting Actor; Cinematography; Art Direction; Sound; Music Score; Film Editing; Special Effects; Costume and loosing out to Room at the Top for Screenplay based on material from another medium.

Who is up for best actress? ›

Actress in a Leading Role
  • Jessica Chastain. The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
  • Olivia Colman. The Lost Daughter.
  • Penélope Cruz. Parallel Mothers.
  • Nicole Kidman. Being the Ricardos.
  • Kristen Stewart. Spencer.

Who is nominated for Best Actor 2022? ›

The 2022 Oscar nominees for Best Actor are Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), Andrew Garfield (“tick, tick… BOOM!”), Will Smith (“King Richard”), and Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”).

What are the Best Picture nominee? ›

Academy Award for Best Picture

What are the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture 2022? ›

Best Picture Oscar Nominees of 2022, Ranked by Tomatometer
  • #1. Drive My Car (2021) 97% #1. ...
  • #2. CODA (2021) 94% #2. ...
  • #3. The Power of the Dog (2021) 94% #3. ...
  • #4. West Side Story (2021) 91% #4. ...
  • #5. Licorice Pizza (2021) 91% #5. ...
  • #6. King Richard (2021) 90% #6. ...
  • #7. Belfast (2021) 86% #7. ...
  • #8. Dune (2021) 83% #8.

What are the nominees for Best Picture this year? ›

Academy Award for Best Picture

Who is up for Oscar nominations 2022? ›

Contenders for Best Actress
  • Jessica Chastain — The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Best Actress (or equivalent) wins: TIFF Tribute Actor, PSIFF Desert Palm Achievement Award, SAG, Critics Choice. ...
  • Nicole Kidman — Being the Ricardos. ...
  • Olivia Colman — The Lost Daughter. ...
  • Kristen Stewart — Spencer. ...
  • Penélope Cruz — Parallel Mothers.
20 Mar 2022

Who won best actress at the Oscars last night? ›

Watch the top moments from the 2022 Oscars in 4 minutes

Jessica Chastain won her first Oscar for best actress in a leading role for her performance in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” Will Smith took home his first Oscar for best actor in a leading role in "King Richard."

Who won best actress Oscars? ›

Academy Awards

Does CODA win best picture? ›

At the Sundance Film Festival in 2021, where the Apple Original Film had its world premiere, “CODA” was honored with an unprecedented four awards, including the Special Jury Award for Ensemble Cast, the Directing Award, the Audience Award, and the Grand Jury Prize, making it the first top Sundance winner to achieve an ...

Who is going to win Best Costume Design? ›

Oscars: Best Costume Design Winner Jenny Beavan Says She “Nearly Said No” to Designing 'Cruella' The British designer said that "Emma Thompson hyperventilating over some of her fittings with joy was one of the highlights of my career."

Who won best costumes at the Academy Awards? ›

What did Cruella win at the Oscars? ›

Cruella

Will there be Encanto 2? ›

Encanto 2: A New Generation is an American animated musical fantasy comedy film produced by Walt Disney Animation Studios, and is the sequel to the 2021 film Encanto. It was released on August 25, 2024 in the United States and is the 63rd animated feature in the Disney Animated Canon.

What is abuelas gift? ›

Essentially, Abuela and Mirabel have the same gift: to bring everyone together with love and support. This is illustrated by scenes like their heart-to-heart by the river, the song "All of You" which Mirabel and Abuela lead together, and even small details like Mirabel and Casita's very close bond.

Why does Mirabel's door disappear? ›

Many fans have concluded that her gift is to keep the family, and the Casita, together and thriving. Perhaps when the door disappeared at her ceremony, it's because some power from the house flowed inside of her, to be used to animate Casita again after it crumbled.

What is the number 1 Disney song? ›

'We Don't Talk About Bruno' From 'Encanto' Now Tops Billboard's Greatest of All Time Disney Songs Chart Ranking. The chart-topping 'Encanto' smash now ranks as the biggest hit from multiple generations of Disney animated films.

Has we don't talk about Bruno surpassed a whole new world? ›

“We Don't Talk About Bruno” was written by Lin Manuel Miranda, and the song is the Hamilton creator's first number one song. The only other song from a Disney animated movie to reach the top spot on the chart was “A Whole New World” from the 1992 animated movie Aladdin, according to Billboard.

What is the longest Disney song? ›

"Step In Time", a song from Walt Disney's 1964 film Mary Poppins, is over 8 minutes long.

Who is the most awarded actor of all time? ›

As of 2022, Katharine Hepburn maintained her lead as the actor with the most Oscar wins of all time.

Who won 8 Oscars? ›

8th Academy Awards

Has anyone ever been stripped of an Oscar? ›

In fact, though there are those who have rejected their Oscars (Marlon Brando, Dudley Nichols), only one award has ever been revoked in Academy history — the 1969 prize for Best Documentary, which was given to Young Americans before it was determined that the film was released in 1967 and therefore ineligible.

Who was nominated for actress of the year 2022? ›

The nominees for Actress in a Leading Role were: Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Penélope Cruz, Nicole Kidman and Kristen Stewart.

Which actress has the most Oscar nominations? ›

A three-time Oscar winner, Meryl Streep is the most nominated performer in the acting categories, with 21 nominations between 1979 and 2018. Streep's total includes a record 17 best actress nominations.

What actors were nominated for best actor this year? ›

The nominees for Actor in a Leading Role were: Javier Bardem, Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith and Denzel Washington.

Who won best actress Baftas 2022? ›

75th British Academy Film Awards

Who is the only person to win an Oscar for acting and writing? ›

Emma Thompson (UK) (b. 15 April 1959) won best actress in 1993 for her role in Howards End (UK 1991) and was awarded Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen for Sense and Sensibility (USA/UK 1995) in 1996, making her the first person ever to win Oscars for both acting and writing.

Who will win best original score? ›

Hans Zimmer won an Oscar for best original score on Sunday (March 27) for Dune. In so doing, he set a record. He waited longer to win his second scoring Oscar than any other composer in history. Zimmer won his first Oscar for best original score 27 years ago for The Lion King.

Who is up for best actress? ›

Contenders for Best Actress
  1. Jessica Chastain — The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
  2. Nicole Kidman — Being the Ricardos.
  3. Olivia Colman — The Lost Daughter.
  4. Kristen Stewart — Spencer.
  5. Penélope Cruz — Parallel Mothers.
20 Mar 2022

Does Coda win best picture? ›

At the Sundance Film Festival in 2021, where the Apple Original Film had its world premiere, “CODA” was honored with an unprecedented four awards, including the Special Jury Award for Ensemble Cast, the Directing Award, the Audience Award, and the Grand Jury Prize, making it the first top Sundance winner to achieve an ...

Who will win Best Original Song? ›

The trophy for best original-song went to Billie Eilish and Finneas, for “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die, while Hans Zimmer won best original score for Dune. Eilish appeared surprised to win the prize. “This is so—I could scream,” she began.

Who won best hair and makeup Oscars 2022? ›

THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE Wins 2022 Oscar for Makeup and Hairstyling. THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE is the Oscars 2022 Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar winner! Get complete coverage of all the Oscars 2022 winners on the Oscars Winners page and the full list of 94th Academy Awards winners here on Oscar.com.

Which musical has won the most Oscars? ›

West Side Story received 10 Oscars (of its 11 nominations), including Best Picture, breaking a record for the number of awards won by a musical.

What movie has the most Oscar nominations 2022? ›

The films with the most nominations at the 2022 Oscars are literally worlds apart— Dune, the expansive sci-fi epic set on several fictional planets, earned 10 nominations, while the New Zealand–filmed Western The Power of the Dog leads the pack with 12 nominations in total.

Which female has won the most Oscars? ›

As of 2022, Katharine Hepburn maintained her lead as the actor with the most Oscar wins of all time. While the "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner" star scored four acting accolades during her career, six fellow actors tied for the second spot with three wins each.

Who was nominated for actress of the year 2022? ›

The nominees for Actress in a Leading Role were: Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Penélope Cruz, Nicole Kidman and Kristen Stewart.

Who has the most Oscars for Best Actress? ›

Katharine Hepburn has won the most awards in this category, with four Oscars. With 17 nominations, Meryl Streep is the most nominated in this category, resulting in two wins. Luise Rainer became the first actress to win the award twice and in consecutive years for The Great Ziegfeld (1936) and The Good Earth (1937).

Is Troy Kotsur deaf? ›

Kotsur was born in Mesa, Arizona, the largest suburb of Phoenix, on July 24, 1968, to JoDee (née True) and Leonard Stephen "Len" Kotsur, who was Mesa's police chief. When Kotsur was nine months old, his parents discovered that he was deaf, and they learned American Sign Language so the family could communicate.

Was CODA based on a true story? ›

Is CODA based on a true story? CODA is not directly based on a true story; still, it's not uncommon for hearing children to be born to deaf parents, as research has shown that over 90% of children of deaf people are not affected by deafness or other hearing issues.

How many deaf actors have won Oscars? ›

Until Sunday night's Oscars, Marlee Matlin had for over three decades been the only deaf person to receive an Academy Award. LOS ANGELES -- Until Sunday night's Oscars, Marlee Matlin had for over three decades been the only deaf person to receive an Academy Award.

Who is the only person to win Oscars for best actress and best song? ›

Barbra Streisand | Oscars.org | Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Who has won 3 Oscars for music? ›

Composers who have won four awards include; Henry Mancini, Johnny Mercer, André Previn, Dimitri Tiomkin and Jimmy Van Heusen. Those with three Oscars each include; Max Steiner, Miklos Rózsa, Maurice Jarre, Howard Shore, Michel Legrand, Marvin Hamlisch, Burt Bacharach, Giorgio Moroder and Stephen Schwartz.

Was we don't talk about Bruno nominated for an Oscar? ›

We Don't Talk About Bruno

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