Missouri basketball's 2025-26 season hinges on a daring strategy: betting big on the growth of returning players. Can relying on internal development truly fuel a Final Four run and a national championship pursuit? It's a bold ambition, especially in today's transfer portal era.
During a recent conversation, when asked about retention, development, and their impact on the team's goals, Missouri basketball coach Dennis Gates responded with unwavering conviction, stating unequivocally: "Final Four, (and) national championship." It's clear that these aren't just aspirations but the very foundation upon which he's building the program.
Now entering his fourth year at the helm, Gates has guided the Tigers to two NCAA Tournament appearances, with one win. There was also a difficult season marred by injuries, resulting in a winless SEC record. The two Big Dance trips included an upset loss to Princeton in 2023, and another to Drake in the Round of 64 this year. Despite these setbacks, the ultimate goals remain unchanged.
And this is the part most people miss... Gates' unwavering commitment to these ambitious goals is admirable.
While the preseason voters in the SEC media poll don't necessarily foresee championship banners hanging in the Mizzou Arena rafters, they are notably more optimistic about the Tigers than in recent years. Predicted to finish seventh in the conference, this is Mizzou's highest preseason ranking since being picked fifth before the 2017-18 season. A finish at or above seventh would mean a return to the NCAA Tournament.
But matching or surpassing that high expectation – especially given that 14 SEC teams made the tournament this year – will depend heavily on the performance of Mizzou's returning players.
While the incoming class, featuring in-state high school talents Aaron Rowe and Nicholas Randall, and the addition of five transfer portal players, does offer intriguing possibilities, the primary driver of any success Missouri achieves this season will be the retention and development of its existing roster.
This philosophy is why Gates has largely avoided pursuing one-and-done transfers. He emphasizes the significance of nurturing talent from within. "Retention and development is very important. You can't just build a national championship team just from the portal," Gates explained. "You have to have a high school recruiting class that's going to keep developing."
This strategy begins with the three returning starters from last season: point guard Anthony Robinson II, forward Mark Mitchell, and forward Trent Pierce. Gates even advocated for Robinson to be named the preseason SEC Defensive Player of the Year, while Mitchell earned a spot on the preseason All-SEC second team. Pierce demonstrated significant improvement last season, albeit with some inconsistency, and the coaching staff is hoping for another leap forward in his junior year. This trio forms a strong nucleus for the team.
But perhaps even more critical to the Tigers' success is the anticipated second-year leap from the 2024 freshman class. Now sophomores (and one redshirt freshman), point guard T.O. Barrett, wing Annor Boateng, and center Trent Burns are all expected to play significant roles this season.
Barrett is likely to share ball-handling duties with Robinson and UCLA transfer Sebastian Mack, making him a vital component of Mizzou's backcourt. The coaching staff is looking for solutions on the perimeter and Boateng, a highly-rated recruit, has a golden opportunity to become a major presence on the wing, where there isn't a clear-cut No. 1 option.
"I want those two guys to make the jump that's necessary in their career," Gates said, "that allows them the opportunity to push their team forward and play significant minutes."
Burns, standing at an impressive 7 foot 5, also possesses the ability to shoot. After missing all of last year due to a foot injury, he's noticeably bigger and stronger now. Gates hopes to see Burns' name on the SEC All-Freshman team once he fully recovers and returns to action. Missouri desperately needs all three players to establish consistent and productive roles.
"That's why we concentrate on not having one-year portal guys, but two-year guys," Gates explained. "Tamar Bates benefited from that. Caleb Grill benefited by way of injury."
Then there's Jacob Crews, who utilized the NCAA waiver granted to all former junior college players to return to Columbia this season. He could potentially have as significant a role as anyone on the roster. Gates wants Crews to make – not just shoot – 100 three-pointers this season. With the departure of Bates and Grill to the professional ranks, Mizzou desperately needs to find a reliable deep-shot threat. To put it in perspective, Grill and Bates combined for 130 made three-pointers last year.
But here's where it gets controversial... Is it realistic to expect one player to replicate the combined production of two key contributors? Some might argue this puts undue pressure on Crews.
That's seven returning players, enough to fill a significant portion of Gates' rotations. Gates emphasized the importance of KenPom rankings. The analytics site is quite favorable to Mizzou, placing them at No. 28 in its preseason rankings – their highest in over a decade – largely due to the team's familiarity and continuity.
In his fourth year, Gates' goals remain consistent with his initial vision for the program. Is this his most talented roster? Only time will tell. But it's undoubtedly his most familiar roster. Mizzou has a proven track record of developing players year after year.
This season, the Tigers are banking on it.
"You have a group of guys that could pull a group forward, and I'm excited with what I've seen with their leadership internally," Gates said. "Now, from an external standpoint, we got to see it all come together with our newcomers."
What do you think? Is relying heavily on returning players a viable strategy for achieving championship aspirations in modern college basketball? Or is a more aggressive approach to the transfer portal necessary for sustained success? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
